Holiday Sales Data Recap

Let’s start and set the scene: This NYTimes article shares how the biggest retailers are prepping for the holiday season/holiday rush.

This article from Axios is easy to digest with all the high level Black Friday - Cyber Monday sales and the trends expected to continue. What you need to know
- online spending was up, over LY
- spending this holiday season expected to continue
- earlier thanksgiving date and favorable weather helped increase shoppers spending
- Holiday shoppers claim to have half of their shopping left to do for the season
Forbes trends that defined Black Friday
- sales started earlier
- advertising costs were higher - becoming more competitive
- ecommerce sales grew faster than in store
- inflation’s impact on sales (more on that below)
- Black Friday is still the big sales day vs Cyber Monday (makes sense, many consumers off work Friday and not as much Monday.) Friday = online + in store and Monday = online
Via Forbes: Retailer performance is all over the place. Some luxury brands are indicating that sales are strong and the business is performing, while other brands are feeling the impact of higher prices. From this Forbes article about pre-Thanksgiving week performance, Retailers were cautiously optimistic because they felt they had a tighter (perhaps more conservative) approach to inventory ahead of the Holiday season vs years past. The article includes several data sources if you are looking to dive even deeper into trends and insights.
This Glossy article Brands prepare for a discount-heavy holiday shopping season has data from Adobe and states that sales were already up 6% year over year with retailers launching earlier Black Friday deals. The belief is that this just pulled sales up but discounts might be longer time frame but a less steep discount (example, 20% for weeks and one day at 30%.) And post BF sales recap from Glossy here increase from 55% to 60% of online sales were done on mobile vs LY. One point this article also made is that when shopping for deals, it is easier to scour the web vs looking for the best deals running around to local stores. A 14% increase from LY on Afterpay for $70 million spent buy now pay later.
More Adobe data in this Retail Brew article, which also stated that Millennials were more likely than older demographics to shop in person.
I’m also listening to The Daily podcast The Bad Vibes Around a Good Economy and while the economy might be “good” there are so many other factors to consider (inflation, income inequality, debt burden, job insecurity, quality of jobs, etc.)
In the realm of fashion, Blackbird Spyplane sparks a sophisticated dialogue on the impact of sales strategies. Take this quote from the article “Put more bluntly, sales allow brands to sell clothes they shouldn’t have made to people who don’t actually want them.”

2024 Predictions - Curated from the media

T Magazine has their Predictor - interviewed 46 tastemakers across various creative industries to find out what they think the tops trends in 2024 will be.
- Color - brown (and purple was the next color mentioned) I think red is sticking around for another season or two also.
- Aesthetic - 80’s and styling towards Donna Karan power suits and big shoulders.
- Design trends - more ornate styling. Lacey vintage looks and Art Nouveau.
- Culture and events - more large scale concerts and experiences. Makes sense with Taylor Swift concerts through November 2024!
Business of Fashion partnered with McKinsey & Company to share the ten themes for 2024 and what will define the industry. Key insights include “Surveyed leaders identify generative AI, sustainability and travel as offering pockets of opportunity for growth and innovation in 2024.” And predicting a 2-4% retail sales growth which shows opportunity if you are strategic and pay attention to the trends and what resonates for your business.
And to recap 2023, Lyst’s Fashion recap is too engaging and fun for me to quote here - just go check it out. Fun! (Note - I love Spotify’s Wrapped. Wouldn’t that be so fun for fashion? This is your most worn item, this is your most popular brand in your closet, other people who dress like you wear these brands…Wow! I love data analytics!)

Mashburn Magic Moments

Sid and Ann Mashburn have been an institution in Atlanta. During a visit last spring/summer in NYC seeing them on the Upper East Side made perfect sense.
Then, while reading The Kingdom of Prep: The Inside Story of the Rise and (Near) Fall of J. Crew by Maggie Bullock (check out my Retail Diary: Book Club write up here) I learned more about each of their impact to J. Crew in the early days.
I also recently purchased Ann Mashburn’s famous Faye Pants (I’m impressed y’all)
The NYTimes wrote a glowing review of their business and shop on the Upper East Side. A few points from the article:
- They hire based on needs and to fill voids
- Discover a unique blend of in-house designs inspired by 1950s mid-century modern and 1960s elegant tailored prep at their shops, seamlessly curated with strong affinity brands and one-of-a-kind items.
- Classic merchandise with personal service “The offerings are low-key, unpretentious; they don’t scream excess. They’re excellent examples of updated classics.”
While they aren’t in San Francisco yet (my backyard) if you are in the area you can check them out next week at the Fairmont. (Men’s styles only)

New Launches, Collabs, Corporate Moves & News

Launched
- Phoebe Philo’s second drop went live this week.
- Vogue wrote about the launch of petite denim line Nelle Atelier launching.
Collabed
- Sofia Coppola x Barrie (I saw the pieces on Net-A-Porter and liked before I even knew about the collab) Read more in Vogue here
Corporate Moves & News
- FundementalCo, a branding agency being spun out of Blackstone, has hired Jenna Lyons to be Executive Creative Director.
- Amandine Ohayon is named CEO at Stella McCartney - most recently she was the CEO at bridalwear brand Pronovias.
- Antoine Arnault is stepping down as CEO at Berluti as part of a reshuffle at the LVMH brands. However he isn’t out completely as this is likely part of a broader leadership maneuver. He continues in his roles as chariman at Loro Piana, oversight for image and environment at LVMH and vice chairman and CEO at Christian Dior SE (the holding company that controls LVMH.) For the full recap read via Lauren Sherman’s The Line Sheet. (Since I mention Sherman every week, make sure if you aren’t subscribed you ask for it as a holiday gift 😉)
- Shein files for IPO.
- Two major designer profiles worth checking out: Maria Cornejo on her 25th Anniversary and Yohji Yamamoto - after 51 years as a designer this Washington Post article by Rachel Tashjian rightly states him as an icon and does things his own way.

Images clockwise from top left: phoebephilo.com, Taylor Swift via whowhatwear.com, Gwyneth Paltrow viral moment via Lyst, Mashburn UES via NYTimes, Sofia Coppola’s book.

What else I ❤️️

More love for top ten list and end of year round-ups. The New Yorker shares the Best Podcasts of 2023. I’m a fan of a couple including Articles of Interest from
Avery Trufelman
Magasin from Laura Reilly had a wonderfully in-depth substack about luxury fashion retail recently.

Magasin
171: All the news that's fit to punctuate two weeks of sale coverage
Sale content ennui? Don’t worry, this send is just news—all the launches, collabs, and other updates we glossed over during the last couple weeks of BlaFriCyMon coverage. But FYI, just because it’s now GiTu (“It’s Giving Tuesday,” said the terminally online way) doesn’t negate the fact that brands are still discounting their way through CyWk (said simila…
Read more
3 days ago · 27 likes · laura reilly
Two fashion books seriously making the rounds this holiday season - every gift guide seems to have this Sofia Coppola book or this CBK book.
Trending this week: Bows and how to wear as an adult. From
Camilla Nazeri and Vogue Magazine.
Calling it now - trending for NYE: silver sequin dresses a la Taylor Swift (which was a la Beyoncé’s Renaissance tour.)
Girls’ Crushing It Holiday Pop-Up Shop Sunday December 10th from 2-5pm in Lafayette, CA. Come shop and support these young entrepreneurs.
Something I’m paying attention to, this article from the WSJ titled Advertising is Dead, Long Live Advertising on retailers and streamers attempting to build their own ad revenue business. Are you noticing this show up? For me, I’ve been most turned off by The RealReal’s ad banner on the top of PDPs. It feels icky and not relevant. I don’t need to see an ad for Safeway as I’m looking at a Chanel Handbag. Also, why would TRR want you to leave the PDP and bounce from the page? Isn’t that hurting their CVR? Make it make sense…. I’m sure TRR is watching the bottom line and data from this new direction but it could potentially drive a lot of business to other sites like Vestiaire Collective, Rebag, Fashionphile etc.
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What's Next?

Let’s keep track of holiday sales. More 2024 predictions to come. More mini recaps.

Thanks for reading Edition 146

Sarah Shapiro